[SMM Weekly Review] Spot Refined Cobalt Prices Fluctuated Downward This Week

This week, spot prices of refined cobalt fluctuated downward. Supply side showed divergence, with smelters holding prices firm supported by raw material costs; however, the domestic futures market weakened significantly mid-week, forcing traders to lower spot quotations accordingly. Demand side, downstream enterprises became more cautious in procurement amid heightened price volatility, maintaining restocking at a rigid demand pace, with overall transactions failing to show significant volume growth. Fundamentally, export approvals for cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have not yet been granted, and the tight supply-demand balance in the cobalt market has not fundamentally shifted in the short term. Moreover, no substantial bearish factors have emerged so far. The sharp price fluctuations this week may have been influenced by fund activities. Notably, the price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts remains at a high level. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will gradually converge towards the reverse smelting cost line of cobalt salts to achieve a reasonable regression of the spread. Whether refined cobalt can sustain its upward trend going forward will still depend on the driving effect of rising cobalt salt prices.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lü Yanlin 021-20707875

Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711